The future of tourism with and after SARS-CoV-2: Situation assessment and tactical as well as strategic considerations

The Research Center for Tourism and Transport at the University of St. Gallen (which I lead) - together with colleagues from practice and academia - has made a third situation assessment on the topic of "Tourism in Times of Pandemic". The nearly thirty theses (see below) presented there allow only one conclusion: The transition period to normality, which will hopefully begin soon, will be bumpy and take a long time, but it will also open up many new opportunities. But there will be a New Normal in which tourism once again becomes an international growth factor, because travel is a basic need.

You can find this report (in German!) at
https://imp.unisg.ch/de/imp-publikationen/2021/tourismusreport-iii.

Theses:

Tourism demand in times of/ after SARS-CoV2: What does one have to observe?

 Under the current volatile conditions, the extent of tourism demand this year is difficult to estimate. However, the analysis of the state of various indicators provides at least some degree of orientation.

The "environment" for tourism is currently very volatile due to the dynamics surrounding SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, it is also difficult to estimate the expected demand in the warm season of this year. But there are a number of factors, observation of which helps to at least gauge the direction of development. 

The future of tourism with and potentially after SARS-CoV-2 - Continuous small steps and drawbacks towards a temporary new "normal"

The AIEST*, the International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism, has embarked on allocating, interpreting as well as reporting about key ramifications of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis.
The forth short report, provided by a joint work of 25 co-authors, including myself, is out now. It topicalizes the future of tourism in the wake of relaxing SARS-CoV-2 shutdowns.
This report can be downloaded at https://www.aiest.org/news/. 

AIEST assesses with this report the current situation as of end of September 2020. At the moment, the situation is volatile, and the duration of the crisis cannot yet be conclusively assessed. Hence, any type of forecasts can only be made with limitations. Nevertheless: the report tries to give you an idea of the situation with the help of some considerations along the following issues:

• Observation of travel and tourism in the past three months: Changes in individual (travel)  behavior, changes in the appearance of tourism and tourism related services;
• Short and medium-term changes in guest behavior;
• Long-term perspective: terminated previous travel trends, new travel trends.

*The AIEST is the oldest international association of scientific and practical experts with particular interest in tourism. It is a unique social network with around 300 members in 49 countries on all continents. This network is devoted to an interdisciplinary approach to serving the needs of research in tourism. It includes an Academic as well as a Practitioner stream that allow an international scientific and practical exchange. The AIEST has contributed much to an objective understanding of the modern phenomenon of tourism, and to the scientific acceptance of studies in this field. Its members help to pinpoint the latest developments and trends in tourism, and to devise farsighted solutions for new problems as they arise.
Find more at https://www.aiest.org/aiest-profile/profile/. 

(Immediate) future of tourism in the wake of relaxing SARS-CoV-2 shutdowns: Small steps to a temporary new “normal”

The AIEST*, the International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism, has embarked on allocating, interpreting as well as reporting about key ramifications of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis.
The third short report, provided by a joint work of 25 co-authors, including myself, is out now. It topicalizes the (immediate) future of tourism in the wake of relaxing SARS-CoV-2 shutdowns.

This report can be downloaded at https://www.aiest.org/news/

In short: Many countries are now beginning to implement the first relaxations in the SARS-CoV-2 related shutdown. Even if tourism service providers are, due to their nature (mobility and human proximity), among the last to benefit from such relaxation measures, possible developments in the revival of the "tourism" phenomenon are already becoming apparent. The present report discusses these on the basis of three specific questions:
(1) What should national tourism actors prepare themselves for in terms of opening up markets in the next 12 months?
(2) What changes will tourism in your country have to adapt to in the next 12 months with regard to the behavior of their guests?
(3) In your opinion, what are the relevant longer-term trends in and for tourism in your country?

*The AIEST is the oldest international association of scientific and practical experts with particular interest in tourism. It is a unique social network with around 300 members in 49 countries on all continents. This network is devoted to an interdisciplinary approach to serving the needs of research in tourism. It includes an Academic as well as a Practitioner stream that allow an international scientific and practical exchange. The AIEST has contributed much to an objective understanding of the modern phenomenon of tourism, and to the scientific acceptance of studies in this field. Its members help to pinpoint the latest developments and trends in tourism, and to devise farsighted solutions for new problems as they arise.
Find more at https://www.aiest.org/aiest-profile/profile/. 

Verkürzte Meinungen und falsche Zitate in den Medien: Eine eigene Sammlung

Meine Bereitschaft zur Einordnung von Auswirkungen und Handlungsoptionen rund um Corona in den Medien führt mitunter zu nicht erwünschten Resultaten. In der Folge befindet sich eine offene Liste von Beispielen, in welchen diese Zusammenarbeit nicht ganz wunschgemäss verlief oder unerwünschte Resultate produzierte. A suivre...

The response of tourism businesses vis-à-vis the economic ramifications of SARS-CoV-2 - Opening intellectual and real avenues for innovations

The AIEST*, the International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism, has embarked on allocating, interpreting as well as reporting about key ramifications of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis.
The second short report, provided by a joint work of 25 co-authors, including myself, is out now. It topicalizes the response of businesses vis-à-vis the economic ramifications of SARS-CoV-2.

This report can now be downloaded at https://www.aiest.org/news/.

In short: Since many tourism and leisure activities can contribute significantly to the spread of SARS-CoV-2, it is not surprising that corresponding business activities have to endure a comprehensive and long lockdown. The response options of various industries to this lockdown are limited. However, as this short report shows, there are systematic, albeit limited, solutions to limit the economic impact to a certain extent by their own efforts.

*The AIEST is the oldest international association of scientific and practical experts with particular interest in tourism. It is a unique social network with around 300 members in 49 countries on all continents. This network is devoted to an interdisciplinary approach to serving the needs of research in tourism. It includes an Academic as well as a Practitioner stream that allow an international scientific and practical exchange. The AIEST has contributed much to an objective understanding of the modern phenomenon of tourism, and to the scientific acceptance of studies in this field. Its members help to pinpoint the latest developments and trends in tourism, and to devise farsighted solutions for new problems as they arise.
Find more at https://www.aiest.org/aiest-profile/profile/. 

How can governments legally and easily inject liquidity into the services sector? By means of tax credits on the basis of the GST/ VAT framework

In my contribution of 22 March (https://www.christianlaesser.net/2020/03/cash-is-king-its-time-for-helicopter.html) I argued that loans are problematic for companies in the service sector and that alternative solutions to overcome liquidity crunches should be considered. However, the aim of any measure should be that it has a general fiscal stimulating effect but at the same time does not distort competition and requires as little discretion as possible in the specific individual application. One possibility for such a measure is to refund value added taxes/ goods and sales taxes by means of temporary tax credits.

How and when will tourism recover during and after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic?

We are currently in a medical, economic and psychological crisis. On the one hand, this crisis could awaken new or dormant needs, but on the other hand some of these needs - for the moment - will only be met to a limited extent. The way out of the crisis will therefore be a step-by-step one, and in fulfillment of step-specific needs.

The response of governments vis-à-vis the economic ramifications of SARS-CoV-2

The AIEST*, the International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism, has embarked on allocating, interpreting as well as reporting about key ramifications of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis.
The first short report, provided by a joint work of 25 co-authors, including myself, is out now. It topicalizes the response of governments vis-à-vis the economic ramifications of SARS-CoV-2.

This report can now be downloaded at https://www.aiest.org/news/.

In short: Many economic activities have more or less come to a standstill since measures were taken against the spread of SARS-CoV-2. This includes tourism in particular.
Governments in various countries have therefore taken measures to cushion the economic costs of this shutdown.
This brief report presents and comments some of these measures as well as countries in which they have been implemented or planned.

*The AIEST is the oldest international association of scientific and practical experts with particular interest in tourism. It is a unique social network with around 300 members in 49 countries on all continents. This network is devoted to an interdisciplinary approach to serving the needs of research in tourism. It includes an Academic as well as a Practitioner stream that allow an international scientific and practical exchange. The AIEST has contributed much to an objective understanding of the modern phenomenon of tourism, and to the scientific acceptance of studies in this field. Its members help to pinpoint the latest developments and trends in tourism, and to devise farsighted solutions for new problems as they arise.

Find more at https://www.aiest.org/aiest-profile/profile/. 

Cash is King! It's time for helicopter money for the CoV-2 induced loss of revenue from services - amalgamating all other claims

Countries and territories are responding to the economic ramifications of the pandemic

Emergency economic measures taken by many countries and territories in response to liquidity crunches by the SARS-CoV-2 crisis essentially foresee for generous compensation for short-time working arrangements as well as loans - sometimes secured by guarantees - and, if necessary, subsidies. These measures help the manufacturing industry; on the other hand, they take no account whatsoever of the special features of the service industry and thus of tourism. Rather, this sector should primarily be considered for helicopter money for legal entities (companies) but also for the self-employed, thus placing the emphasis on subsidies. Possible means of implementation: A negative lump sum tax.