10 January, 2021

Mobility of the future: Euphoria will give way to disillusionment sooner or later

Against the backdrop of technological developments, we can dream of a supposedly better future for mobility. However, if we consider the "big picture" and ask ourselves where scarcity could prevail in the future, euphoria quickly gives way to disillusionment. This article presents a chain of arguments that lead to a very cautious assessment of the future of mobility.

A large number of studies paint a picture of the future of mobility, which is characterized by a greater diversity of mobility tools (available means of transport and forms of access, e.g. a car or a general subscription), high proportions of sharing business models (increasingly fewer mobility tools are owned by those who use them; e.g. mobility car sharing) and a networking of different modes of transport, with MaaS (mobility as a service) as the ultimate business model. Many players in this happening therefore dream of being at least an intermediary with their own platform and thus quasi "asset-light" at the center of future mobility and transport systems and their networks. And the manufacturers of various mobility tools (namely the carmakers) are counting on being able to compensate for future slumps in sales with the aforementioned "sharing" offerings. Automated driving also offers productivity potential, since humans are no longer needed to operate these vehicles. Last but not least, the owners of transport infrastructures assume that these infrastructures can be operated even more productively in the future. So we are all on our way to a promising mobility future.

Really? Below I allow myself to make a few reflections that shake this ideal image.

29 September, 2020

The future of tourism with and potentially after SARS-CoV-2 - Continuous small steps and drawbacks towards a temporary new "normal"

The AIEST*, the International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism, has embarked on allocating, interpreting as well as reporting about key ramifications of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis.
The forth short report, provided by a joint work of 25 co-authors, including myself, is out now. It topicalizes the future of tourism in the wake of relaxing SARS-CoV-2 shutdowns.
This report can be downloaded at https://www.aiest.org/news/

AIEST assesses with this report the current situation as of end of September 2020. At the moment, the situation is volatile, and the duration of the crisis cannot yet be conclusively assessed. Hence, any type of forecasts can only be made with limitations. Nevertheless: the report tries to give you an idea of the situation with the help of some considerations along the following issues:

  • Observation of travel and tourism in the past three months: Changes in individual (travel)  behavior, changes in the appearance of tourism and tourism related services;
  • Short and medium-term changes in guest behavior;
  • Long-term perspective: terminated previous travel trends, new travel trends.
*The AIEST is the oldest international association of scientific and practical experts with particular interest in tourism. It is a unique social network with around 300 members in 49 countries on all continents. This network is devoted to an interdisciplinary approach to serving the needs of research in tourism. It includes an Academic as well as a Practitioner stream that allow an international scientific and practical exchange. The AIEST has contributed much to an objective understanding of the modern phenomenon of tourism, and to the scientific acceptance of studies in this field. Its members help to pinpoint the latest developments and trends in tourism, and to devise farsighted solutions for new problems as they arise.
Find more at https://www.aiest.org/aiest-profile/profile/. 


13 May, 2020

(Immediate) future of tourism in the wake of relaxing SARS-CoV-2 shutdowns: Small steps to a temporary new “normal”

The AIEST*, the International Association of Scientific Experts in Tourism, has embarked on allocating, interpreting as well as reporting about key ramifications of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis.
The third short report, provided by a joint work of 25 co-authors, including myself, is out now. It topicalizes the (immediate) future of tourism in the wake of relaxing SARS-CoV-2 shutdowns.

This report can be downloaded at https://www.aiest.org/news/

In short: Many countries are now beginning to implement the first relaxations in the SARS-CoV-2 related shutdown. Even if tourism service providers are, due to their nature (mobility and human proximity), among the last to benefit from such relaxation measures, possible developments in the revival of the "tourism" phenomenon are already becoming apparent. The present report discusses these on the basis of three specific questions:
(1) What should national tourism actors prepare themselves for in terms of opening up markets in the next 12 months?
(2) What changes will tourism in your country have to adapt to in the next 12 months with regard to the behavior of their guests?
(3) In your opinion, what are the relevant longer-term trends in and for tourism in your country?

*The AIEST is the oldest international association of scientific and practical experts with particular interest in tourism. It is a unique social network with around 300 members in 49 countries on all continents. This network is devoted to an interdisciplinary approach to serving the needs of research in tourism. It includes an Academic as well as a Practitioner stream that allow an international scientific and practical exchange. The AIEST has contributed much to an objective understanding of the modern phenomenon of tourism, and to the scientific acceptance of studies in this field. Its members help to pinpoint the latest developments and trends in tourism, and to devise farsighted solutions for new problems as they arise.
Find more at https://www.aiest.org/aiest-profile/profile/.