This contribution is an English transcript of an interview with Südostschweiz, a major media outlet in Switzerland. The original version can be found at «Der Elefant im Raum bleibt bestehen und harrt einer Lösung» | suedostschweiz.ch.
Please note that this talk was recorded before the Russian attack on Ukraine. It topicalizes the immediate and medium-term challenges tourism in Switzerland faces. Many of the assessments in this talk are also applicable to similar contexts, such as in neighboring countries.
During the pandemic, the Swiss
discovered Switzerland as a vacation destination. Now that the pandemic is
over, they are booking vacations abroad again. Are the international guests
coming back now?
For the most part, the Swiss had
little choice but to stay here during the pandemic. Now the borders are open
again, but I'm curious to see how volatile the situation will remain. But after
two years of not being able to travel freely, we can now expect an excess of
demand for travel abroad. This means that this year, and perhaps next year as
well, fewer Swiss will stay in Switzerland. It is even possible that there will
be fewer than before the pandemic. However, tourists from the European region
will return. I am still cautious about intercontinental guests. North America
or the UAE should not be a problem. With India and China, it is still a bit
uncertain. In India, travel will certainly start earlier - in China, on the
other hand, the tourism effects of the still ongoing zero-COVID strategy and
the geopolitical aspects are difficult to assess. Here, the “lean” period will
probably be longer. I also have big question marks about emerging markets in
general; they often have high dollar debts. The now rising interest rates could
lead to economic burdens and even dislocations.
Where has the collapse of the
international market hurt the most - the cities or the mountains?
It was a different problem at
different times. Cities suffered because business tourism collapsed. The same
is true for city tourism in Switzerland, even if it is not as pronounced as in
other countries. And then, of course, there are the regions geared to global
visitor flows and known as corresponding hotspots, such as the Bernese
Oberland, central Switzerland, or even parts of western Switzerland and Valais,
e.g. Zermatt, which have had to hit bottom. Since many of these destinations
are located in the Alps, winter tourism was able to prevent even worse in some
cases. .
You talk about the Bernese Oberland
or even Central Switzerland, but Davos, Arosa and St. Moritz are also popular
with international guests....
Of course. And Davos also had a big
slump, for example because the WEF couldn't take place. With St. Moritz, you must
make a distinction. In winter, you can compare this destination with Zermatt,
but in summer, St. Moritz has never been as popular as other hotspots. St.
Moritz never had this global sightseeing tourism like the Bernese Oberland.
Overall, therefore, Graubünden has done well. Especially when you look at the
winter figures. You got through the pandemic with a black eye.
Is tourism recovering from the
pandemic?
Most certainly, because travel is a
human need. I also expect global growth rates to be solid again after the
pandemic. It is also important to remember that many people in the world have
not even started to travel yet. However, I doubt whether under these conditions,
tourism will become more sustainable as quickly as many are increasingly
calling for. In Switzerland, in particular, we see many good measures at the
operational and destination level that improve the sustainability of tourism
service provision on site. However, the elephant in the room - the CO2
emissions from tourism mobility - remains and awaits a solution. In short,
until we decarbonize guest mobility, tourism is not truly sustainable.
In times of climate change, does it
make sense to focus so strongly on winter tourism?
There is hardly a destination that is
not working on the further development of a warm weather season. However, one
must not forget that the tourism value added in the mountains in winter is
still many times higher than in summer due to the central role of cableway
companies-driven winter sports. Since climate change is slow in coming, little
will change in the foreseeable future, especially in higher altitude
destinations. As long as this "foreseeable time" is longer than the
investment cycles of the cableway companies, they will continue to replace
their old facilities with new ones, in the will to continue to profit from
winter tourism at least for this foreseeable time. If you ask me this question
again in 25-35 years, you may get a different answer. The "foreseeable
time" will certainly be shorter then...
Are there special challenges
concerning tourism in a mountain canton like Graubünden?
Yes, for example the shortage of
skilled workers. The pandemic has almost brutally exposed the lack of
attractiveness of tourism and hospitality professions. To put it briefly: Those
who find or have found something "better" are leaving or have already
left - perhaps forever. But this phenomenon is only an indication of a deeper
problem, namely that of rather poor productivity compared to other industries.
Consequently, the scope for higher wages is also rather small, unless
individual processes or entire business models are completely reconfigured. One
will have to look for approaches to get "more" out of tourism and not
just to have "more tourism".
Will there now be price wars in the
tourism industry?
Then we would have more tourism, but
not more out of tourism... No, I don't think so, maybe except for the low-cost
airlines, as many are on a hunt for market share. What speaks against price
wars in Switzerland is that two conditions are not met in many cases: First, a
filled war chest to sustain such a price war, and second, margins from which
one can and will give up something. Moreover, prices have already picked up in
the euro zone, where Switzerland's most important markets are located. This
means that the latent problem of the strong Swiss franc is increasingly
becoming nonexistent. For these reasons, Swiss tourism is more likely to see
opportunities for gentle upward price adjustments.
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